ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: By 2022, high levels of past COVID-19 infections, combined with substantial levels of vaccination and the development of Omicron, have shifted country strategies towards burden reduction policies. SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen tests (rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs)) could contribute to these policies by helping rapidly detect, isolate and/or treat infections in different settings. However, the evidence to inform RDT policy choices in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) is limited. METHOD: We provide an overview of the potential impact of several RDT use cases (surveillance; testing, tracing and isolation without and with surveillance; hospital-based screening to reduce nosocomial COVID-19; and testing to enable earlier/expanded treatment) for a range of country settings. We use conceptual models and literature review to identify which use cases are likely to bring benefits and how these may change with outbreak characteristics. Impacts are measured through multiple outcomes related to gaining time, reducing the burden on the health system and reducing deaths. RESULTS: In an optimal scenario in terms of resources and capacity and with baseline parameters, we find marginal time gains of 4 days or more through surveillance and testing tracing and isolation with surveillance, a reduction in peak intensive care unit (ICU) or ICU admissions by 5% or more (hospital-based screening; testing, tracing and isolation) and reductions in COVID-19 deaths by over 6% (hospital-based screening; test and treat). Time gains may be used to strengthen ICU capacity and/or boost vulnerable individuals, though only a small minority of at-risk individuals could be reached in the time available. The impact of RDTs declines with lower country resources and capacity, more transmissible or immune-escaping variants and reduced test sensitivity. CONCLUSION: RDTs alone are unlikely to dramatically reduce the burden of COVID-19 in LMICs, though they may have an important role alongside other interventions such as vaccination, therapeutic drugs, improved healthcare capacity and non-pharmaceutical measures.